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Old August 1, 2011, 08:50 AM   #47
Bartholomew Roberts
Senior Member
 
Join Date: June 12, 2000
Location: Texas and Oklahoma area
Posts: 5,718
Thanks for the update Dan_F, I was initially disappointed to see that none of the NRA-endorsed Dems signed the letter. I'm glad to learn that it was just a format thing and that those Senators didn't place party over the Second Amendment.

As you point out though, it means that as a practical reality, neither CIFTA nor a UN Small Arms Trade treaty incorporating civilian firearms will ever be ratified. A treaty would need 66 votes in the Senate to be ratified and an agreement would need 50.

With 58 Senators on our side and on the record, we can still defeat ratification of these types of treaties, even if as many as 20 Senators defected.

Looking to the longer term 2012-election view, here is a quick list of the 2012 elections. Senators who signed the NRA letter are in bold:

RETIRING:
1. Joe Lieberman CT
2. Daniel Akaka HI
3. Jeff Bingaman - NM
4. Kent Conrad - ND
5. Jim Webb - VA
6. Herb Kohl - WI
7. Jon Kyl - AZ
8. Kay Bailey Hutchison - TX

UP FOR REELECTION:
1. Diane Feinstien - CA
2. Tom Carper - DE
3. Bill Nelson - FL
4. Ben Cardin - MD
5. Debbie Stabenow - MI
6. Amy Klobuchar - MN
7. Claire McCaskill - MO
8. Jon Tester - MT
9. Ben Nelson - NE
10. Bob Menendez - NJ
11. Kirsten Gillibrand - NY
12. Sherrod Brown - OH
13. Bob Casey, Jr. - PA
14. Sheldon Whitehouse - RI
15. Bernie Sanders - VT
16. Maria Cantwell - WA
17. Joe Manchin - WV
18. Richard Lugar - IN
19. Olympia Snowe - ME
20. Scott Brown - MA
21. Roger Wicker - MI
22. Dean Heller - NV
23. Bob Corker - TN
24. Orrin Hatch - UT
25. John Barrasso - WY

As you can see, out of 33 seats up for election in 2012, only 15 Senators who signed that letter face a reelection challenge. That means even if the antis are successful in a clean sweep of every pro-RKBA Senator who signed the letter (which would entail the unlikely task of unseating long-term incumbents and replacing them with antis in states like MT, WY, TX, etc.) WITHOUT losing a single one of the other 18 races, they still wouldn't have the votes necessary to ratify a treaty if these Senators hold true to their signed pledge.

So as a realistic threat, it looks like neither of these treaties are going anywhere until 2014 at the earliest (and even that would require some unlikely wins by the antis in 2012).
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