View Single Post
January 14, 2009, 10:59 AM   #63
Brian Pfleuger
Staff

Join Date: June 25, 2008
Location: Central, Southern NY, USA
Posts: 17,111
Quote:
 It can be argued with statistics that the chances are very good given the 9 previous outcomes.
Actually, that can not be argued with statistics. It COULD be argued by a person that doesn't understand statistics. In order for it to be a valid experiment we must assume that the coin is balanced and that there is no external influence on its' landing. Making those assumptions, there is EXACTLY a 50% chance that the next toss will be heads. The odds of your 9 heads in a row is roughly 19 in 10,000. The odds of getting 100 heads in a row are very low (7.888609X10^-31, approximately) but it could happen. Once it does happen, the odds of getting heads on #101 are exactly 50%. Previous outcomes of random events DO NOT affect future outcomes.
__________________
Still happily answering to the call-sign Peetza.
---
You do not HAVE a soul. You ARE a soul. You HAVE a body.
-----
He is no fool who gives what he can not keep to gain what he can not lose.
-Jim Eliott, paraphrasing Philip Henry.

Last edited by Brian Pfleuger; January 14, 2009 at 11:05 AM.

Page generated in 0.05141 seconds with 7 queries