If you want to discuss how we make decisions and your theory of such, please go ahead.
If you want to discuss personal motivations for discussing risk analysis - nope.
To get us on track:
What information do you use to make a rational decision about what actions to take?
Is it the likelihood of outcomes, per se?
Is it the likelihood of outcomes X results of such outcomes?
Is it the emotional vividness of an error that causes you to overvalue some action? - That's a well known effect.
What's your cutoff point for worrying about an outcome?
Or something similar.
If we start to snipe, then we are going in circles and guess what!