Correct. This is why it's important to think things through ahead of time so that you have a basic framework to operate from BEFORE things turn bad.
John I agree with you on the thinking it through part but where I have issue is when some take "statistics" out of academic papers without showing the context or bias and telling you to use them when thinking it through beforehand. The danger is that if you don't really understand what these mathmatical formulae mean then you might come up with a poor plan.
As an aside, when I took statistics in grad school one of the most misunderstood concepts was the confidence interval. People who didn't understand statistics thought it meant one thing and it didn't.
I agree somewhat with supergas in that these academic studies had little or no bearing on what our plan may be as they might be misunderstood.
Of course some folk just like to try to come on here and show their academic schtick to get credibility. But I will leave that alone.