It's not about the odds of something happening, it's all about the consequences that happen if you aren't prepared.
I made a song about that in the "other" thread. You make plans based on BOTH probability AND severity. A meteor crashing into your house would be VERY severe, yet you (I hope) aren't preparing for it. It's the same as carrying a spare mag or driving fast or not wearing a seatbelt. If you planned based entirely on severity you would, well for one thing you'd never get out of bed, but for another thing, you'd feel compelled to walk around in body armor with the M4 mentioned by Glenn, driving an armored car with RPGs in the trunk.
You have to draw the line SOMEWHERE. That line is drawn based almost entirely on ODDS, not severity.
Still happily answering to the call-sign Peetza.
The problem, as you so eloquently put it, is choice.
He is no fool who gives what he can not keep to gain what he can not lose.
-Jim Eliott, paraphrasing Philip Henry.
Last edited by Brian Pfleuger; January 12, 2009 at 07:03 PM.