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View Full Version : Post-Panic Pricing on AR/AK's


mrvco
January 16, 2013, 01:55 PM
I was on the cusp of purchasing an AK prior to the Newtown shooting. Fortunately I was able to resist the temptation to drop 2-3x on the particular rifle i wanted to purchase.

For those of you who weathered the O'panic of 2007/8, how long did it take for pricing and availability to get back to "normal"? Should we see things recover pretty quickly on gunbroker.com (at least) as the current auctions expire and get re-listed?

MK11
January 16, 2013, 02:02 PM
The panic of '08 had nothing driving it but self-generated fear and it still lasted six months.

Now, there are actual bans being proposed. Action on a national level won't have much juice given the weak series of executive orders but the state and local prohibitions could be brutal. If you live in a state not discussing a ban, you should get back to normal in the next few months. If you're in one of the states trying to outdo each other with nonsensical restrictions, there is no going back to normal.

Fishbed77
January 16, 2013, 05:19 PM
I'm not normally the pessimistic type, but I have a feeling that the panic buying and price gouging will go on until:

A) BHO gets what he wants. The mags and rifle configurations we want and have a right to own will be banned, but at least ammo should be available again.

B) His term expires and we get a more moderate or conservative president in his place. I don't see a failure to pass an AWB to be the stopping point for him. I have a feeling new non-sensical legislation will be threatened again and again until there is a more reasonable successor in his office.

I could be wrong though. I hope I am.

Another thing to keep in mind - when things return to a more normal state please remember who is price gouging (no, it is not simple capitalism or supply-and-demand) during these trying times and who is still running an ethical business.

I just got a big email from Cheaper Than Dirt annoucing all the magazines they had back in stock and saw them selling used surplus AK mags for $80 and plain-jane GI AR mags for $130 apiece.

These ***holes will never get another dime of my money.


.

lee n. field
January 16, 2013, 05:23 PM
For those of you who weathered the O'panic of 2007/8, how long did it take for pricing and availability to get back to "normal"?

For those of us that handload, it didn't. Primers never did get back down to where they were.

Should we see things recover pretty quickly on gunbroker.com (at least) as the current auctions expire and get re-listed?

In the Great 0bama Gun Famine of 2008, I kept hearing that we would soon see a bunch of panic purchases, going for cheap. I never saw it.

His term expires and we get a more moderate or conservative president in his place.

First mid-term election, politcreatures with a D. behind their name are sent home in droves.

Alabama Shooter
January 16, 2013, 05:54 PM
In the Great 0bama Gun Famine of 2008, I kept hearing that we would soon see a bunch of panic purchases, going for cheap. I never saw it.

I saw a lot of DPMS rifles going for well below $700. Walmart was carrying LE Colts for under $1100. Those were really good prices compared to 2007.

ratshooter
January 16, 2013, 10:12 PM
For those of you who weathered the O'panic of 2007/8, how long did it take for pricing and availability to get back to "normal"? Should we see things recover pretty quickly on gunbroker.com (at least) as the current auctions expire and get re-listed?

When the buying panic started in 2008 it took about 6-8 months for the ammo to start getting easier to find. at the same time the price of lead, copper, brass and every other metal was sky high because the chinese were buying everything they could get including gold and silver.

Ammo came back at a much increased price. IIRC it took guns about a year to be commonly found. I remember going to gunshows that formally having no black rifles to having long tables full of ARs and such that no one was even looking at. Plus a lot of ARs on shoulders of sellers that no one was buying. I was pretty sure that everyone who had wanted an AR had bought one.

Four years later there is a new crop of young shooters who want their own ARs and once again they are at scalper prices if they can be found at all.

How long this time? Who knows?

mrvco
January 17, 2013, 01:07 AM
I have been encouraged that the most exorbitantly marked-up auctions (2-3x+ of list) on gunbroker.com are not getting any bids and are expiring, but the quantity for sale is far higher than I've ever seen (10x or more in some cases)... of course this is just for my fairly particular search criteria.

Auto426
January 17, 2013, 02:04 AM
I personally think the worst part of it is now over. Obama's executive actions are nothing more than a pile of BS and another hit for the deficit. He wants another AWB and mag capacity limit, but Congress won't act on it because they learned their lesson with the first ban. Hopefully in a few months things will finally settle back down, the price gouging will stop, and mags, ammo, components, and complete firearms will be back in stock again.

Justice06RR
January 17, 2013, 04:54 AM
When the buying panic started in 2008 it took about 6-8 months for the ammo to start getting easier to find. at the same time the price of lead, copper, brass and every other metal was sky high because the chinese were buying everything they could get including gold and silver.

Ammo came back at a much increased price. IIRC it took guns about a year to be commonly found. I remember going to gunshows that formally having no black rifles to having long tables full of ARs and such that no one was even looking at. Plus a lot of ARs on shoulders of sellers that no one was buying. I was pretty sure that everyone who had wanted an AR had bought one.

Four years later there is a new crop of young shooters who want their own ARs and once again they are at scalper prices if they can be found at all.

How long this time? Who knows?


Thank you for that input. At the 6-8 month time frame, that puts us in July or so.

Dealers and sellers who are selling these rifles now at inflated prices are not getting their asking price and will force them to lower their prices eventually.

At the last couple of gun shows I see plenty of AR's at 2x their normal price and not very many people buying. If a seller prices them appropriately, then those people are the ones who will make money and stay competitive in the firearms industry, not the ones charging $1500 for a $750 AR. There was a table at the last Central FL gun show that sold complete uppers for $399 minus the BCG; I kinda regret not buying one from them.

What I'm worried about more is the availability of parts and mags, which are backordered for quite a while. If they follow the trend, then hopefully they will be back to normal-ish prices in 6-8 months too.

Greguw
January 17, 2013, 08:06 AM
Seems like the cheaper entry level AR's and AK's are the firearms that have jumped in price , the higher end firearms have only climbed slightly .
There are some guys listing 1000 dollar AR's for 4000 grand , most of use allready have what we need .
I still may pickup another sig 556 swat but have plenty of AR's and Ak's my self . The problem is going to be the price of ammo is just crazy .
I have my stock pile of ammo but may have to go back to reloading .

Alabama Shooter
January 17, 2013, 09:47 AM
In 2008 I ordered some primers before the election. They never shipped. In January 2010 Midway contacted me and told me my credit card was expired and could I give them a new card number? I was moving at the time so I cancelled the order.

Seven High
January 17, 2013, 10:24 PM
Reloading supplies for 5.56 are in short supply as well right now. Sigh.

Greguw
January 18, 2013, 06:28 AM
I was just out at my buddies gun shop and he was out at the shot show for a few days and just got back yesterday .
He said expect increase in cost to all tactical type firearms to the dealers ... The manufactures feel there being left out in the feeding frenzy .

Art Eatman
January 18, 2013, 11:42 AM
Manufacturers' costs of materials, utilities, taxes and labor are going up like every other business. We'll likely see a higher "new normal" in pricing that's based more on basic economics than on panic or gouging or whatever.

The big problem for small retailers is getting something to sell. Their overhead continues even when they can't restock with what customers want. Probably be some going out of business this spring--if they weren't able to stash some profits from this panic buying.

Ignition Override
January 19, 2013, 04:48 AM
There are lots of SKS rifles on Gunbroker at reasonable prices-not much above prices in early '08, months before That election.
Considering the panic for the glamorous ARs right now, the SKS could be considered an excellent value.

Actually, the number of pages on GB with the SKS has more than doubled, from 4 to 9 pages in about two/three weeks.

People now might finally understand why some of us buy a heap of ammo Before we acquire a different type of gun, and all of this
before a Presidential "coronation", provided the cash is available

Pilot
January 19, 2013, 07:34 AM
The manufactures feel there being left out in the feeding frenzy

The manufacturers are making their money in pure VOLUME. The market value of their products may have gone up temporarily due to panic, but if/when things return to a more normal state, and I think they will, their will be price point pressure on all of them.

FALPhil
January 19, 2013, 08:32 AM
B) His term expires and we get a more moderate or conservative president in his place. I don't see a failure to pass an AWB to be the stopping point for him. I have a feeling new non-sensical legislation will be threatened again and again until there is a more reasonable successor in his office.

I could be wrong though. I hope I am.

Fish, I hope you are too, but I am pessimistic. For a couple of reasons.

1. The continued urbanization and rising housing density in the USA tends to desensitize people to loss of liberty and regulation.

2. Continued support of the government schooling system, K-12, ensures that critical thinking skills will never be learned.

3. Insane immigration policy waters down the cultural values which make personal liberty and distrust of concentrated government power a priority.

The deck is stacked against us. They are in it for the long haul, ane we keep looking to the next election cycle. Either we will have to carve out a new situation or we will tell our grandchildren about the last days of the "land of the free".

Sarge
January 19, 2013, 08:51 AM
For those of you who weathered the O'panic of 2007/8, how long did it take for pricing and availability to get back to "normal"? Should we see things recover pretty quickly on gunbroker.com (at least) as the current auctions expire and get re-listed?

About a year but you have to consider that in 2008, Obama & Co were looking at eventual accountability in 2012. Now there is none & that's a game changer. This is apparent in the immediate push to reenact the AWB. The people trying to do this know damn good & well that restricting firearms will not prevent such a massacre. They are using the blood of innocent children to seize a political objective- period. If this continues throughout Obama's second term, it won't get better. It will only get worse.

People list firearms on the auction sites because they realize that somewhere out there is an impulse buyer, who will pay top dollar (or more) for what they are selling. While you get a range of prices, they'll run to the high side and for that reason I find them to be a poor indicator of prices.

If I really want to know what a particular used gun is bringing, I check the major retailers who list used guns- Cherry's (http://www.cherrys.com/handguns.htm), Williams (http://www.williamsgunsight.com/gunsights/807usedshotguns.htm), Summit Gun Broker (http://www.summitgunbroker.com/) etc.

mrvco
January 21, 2013, 11:14 PM
The quantity available is still high, but actual sold prices have slipped below 2x consistently (at least based on my searches). A lot of the sellers seem to be those trying catch the backside of the panic-peak selling guns they've rarely shot (funny how you almost never see a used gun on Gunbroker with more than a couple hundred rounds through it :p).

jmorris
January 21, 2013, 11:44 PM
Reading a (old) American Rifleman down at our farm a few weeks ago, from 7 years into Clinton's AWB. New AR mags were selling for $17, again 7 years after no new ones could be made.

The ones that were really expensive turned out to be the ones no one thought to stock up on, like 10/22 mags for $130 or 10mm Glock mags for $150.

Pilot
January 22, 2013, 06:36 AM
Prices for AR's are already coming down, as the prospects for any type of national ban is getting less likely. After the weak Obama EO's I think people realize any ban will likely fail in the House. Plus, the emotions on the Newtown shooting is waning. People hae already moved on, as they always do.

Justice06RR
January 22, 2013, 11:19 PM
Pricing on the rifles may be coming down, but not on ammo. 223 and x39 is still almost impossible to find locally in most of the sporting goods/hunting stores.

mrvco
January 23, 2013, 12:32 AM
Some of the strange buying behavior is still extra strange...

People paying more for used guns than what they can buy the exact same thing NIB still perplexes me. I guess not everyone knows how to search and they just buy the first thing that is priced at something equal to or less the the amount of cash they have in their pocket.

Patriot86
January 23, 2013, 08:51 AM
I think if everyone can take a deep breath those of us holding money in 6 months to a year are going to have a sweet used "like new" gun market to take advantage of.

Unless Obama and Pals can get an AWB of some kind through in the first few months of this year it is not going to happen. As the year goes on you are going to have a lot of Democrats AND "moderate" Republicans from pro gun places like Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado etc thinking about re-election in 2014.

As it stands he might have the votes in the Senate but by my calculations about 30-40 Republicans would need to jump ship and vote for an AWB in the house for it to pass. It may be even more depending on how vulnerable the dems from places like I listed above feel on the issue.

At the end of the day, in late 2013 you are going to see prices dropping on new guns, inventory going up and lots of used guns people could not afford in the first place being sold off at bargain prices.


That being said, hang on guys because I think we will see another run on guns and ammo in mid 2014. The Democrats are out for blood and they want the house back. If it looks like something that is ever remotely possibly I think we will see another big run on evil black rifles, magazines and ammo.

Hairbag
January 23, 2013, 09:49 PM
MK11 said it best

tgreening
January 26, 2013, 01:57 AM
I'm not one to wish ill will on a total stranger but realistically speaking, Diane Frankenstein isn't going to hang around forever...

MarkCO
January 26, 2013, 11:42 AM
The least expensive AR15s I have seen were in late 2011 (Under $600 total for new). There were so many choices and manufacturers that the prices went down. But, I can't remember an AR15 being anything over $1800 or so pre 1994 and in 2011, there were models north of $4k. In CO, new $800 ARs hit about $2000 about 2 weeks ago and now are at about $1500.

While we need to keep the pressure on our elected officials to follow the consitution and serve their constituents, National and Local, it is looking like a pretty hard fight to pass a National AWB. The magazine capacity ban as a stand alone bill likely has a better chance.

In the past week, I have been able to source, procure and assemble 4 complete ARs for less than $1K for local friends who procrastinated over the past several years. They ended up paying maybe $200 more due to panic prices here and there. Most of that was in BCGs and Lowers. I got them each a new 30 round mag and a box of ammo.

With the ammo shortages, the vast majority of the new guns are not getting shot a lot. I agree with the assertions of Patriot86 as to the mid to late 2013 surplus of firearms, BUT, there will not be a glut of magazines again IMHO. There will never be a glut of ammuniton either.

sdclaw
January 26, 2013, 02:43 PM
Reasonable deals can still be had from reputable local shops. I picked up a New colt for 1,500 today including an extra mag, 100 rounds, and a used pelican. They also had a DPMS AP4 for 1,075. Guns are moving out from distributors. If your shop is telling you otherwise it's likely they are selling them online for big money rather than selling them in store.

Pilot
January 26, 2013, 02:55 PM
A friend and I hit a few gun shops around town to see what we could find. Of course the shelves were bare with regards to black rifles, and some had pistol cases that were pretty picked over, and not yet re-stocked. Most ammo that anyone would want was also gone including .22LR.

However, there were still many other types of rifles, shotguns, and some pistols left. Once shop still had a nice selection of pistols and at good prices too. They were only selling ammo to those who bought pistols though, and were limiting to one box.

General consensus at these shops was that things were still crazy, but were "quieting down", and they were not seeing the panic buying nearly as much, but were still seeing steady, consistant sales, well above pre-panic levels. They ARE getting re-supplied, however. The ammo situation seems to be worse than the gun sitauation except for AR's, and AK's, etc.

Sarge
January 26, 2013, 06:07 PM
The famine of .22 ammunition, at Walmart and other bargain stores, is worse than I've ever seen it. Most of the gun shops in central MO are pretty well sold out, too.

MarkCO
January 26, 2013, 06:56 PM
Was in Bass Pro yesterday...4 revolvers and 2 1911s TOTAL in the case. Hunintg grade shotguns and rifles had full racks. Shot shells and high power rifle ammo, plenty.

Only a few boxes of .17HMR and .22Mag in RF. Employee told me they get stock Saturday and they come in and stock some before open, but they have lines well into the parking lot when they open.

Our Sportsmans Warehouse gets stocked on Fridays, lines over 200 have been seen before opening. They wheel out some pallets of ammo and it is like locusts. A clerk told me some of the same guys are coming every Friday morning and buying everything they can carry. Line form at the gun counters too with people still waiting up to 2 or 3 hours to get a chance to buy a gun.

Insane.

pat701
January 26, 2013, 07:04 PM
If the Fed's can't pass an AWB it will take 9 months for prices to come back to normal. ;)