View Full Version : Bin Laden raid
May 4, 2011, 05:50 PM
Does anyone have insight as how the raid may have gone down. It seems that it would be very difficult to break into a fortified complex, go up two flights of stairs and kill all the bad guys without any of the SEAL team getting shot. I would think the people inside the house would arm themselves when they heard helicopters outside.
I know these guys are the best of the best but I'm just wondering what kind of tactics did they likely use. I can guess but does anyone have an educated guess?
May 4, 2011, 05:56 PM
I think our guys are just that good.
May 4, 2011, 06:15 PM
The operation would have been planned down the smallest detail. I suspect that we probably had eyes on the ground before the helos ever came in. Regardless once the birds occupants landed or fast roped some portion would have been assigned to protect the operators as they closed the distance and entered the buildings.
Probably hit the pretty hard with flash bangs and took out the stunned occupants very efficiently as one would expect.
Probably wouldnt have made much of a difference if the compounds guards put up heavy resistance. My gut feeling is that the guards were rather lax as was OBL and they felt they had no reason to fear being attacked so close to the capital.
I would certainly expect that some high level local official was being paid to protect OBL and since we did it without Pakistans permission they had no way to warn OBL.
Since this was a terrorist (illegal combatants) command they were entitled to no protections under the rules of war and were subject to elimination without a trial per said rules.
The tv explanation will never have all the details..
May 4, 2011, 06:33 PM
latest report(nightly news tonight w/diane sawyer):
several seals opened fire on the compound and continued to fire for 40-45 minutes before entering(not firefight/just demolishing target. she claimed the seals would've gotten bin laden alive if he was naked and had his hands up, or I should say it was phrased something of the sorts (paraphrase only/memory not too good always):
"pretty much the seals were there to end the threat for good and bin laden was to die almost definately unless his hands were up and he was naked"
it didn't even need to be reported; who they'd bin lookin for was @ the end of a seek and destroy mission which is obvious and pretty much common sense sort of like when escobar was gunned down
May 4, 2011, 06:38 PM
It was an impressive mission, no doubt!
The game is different though when you are not concerned with being second guessed or questioned about things being a good/bad shoot.
Already seems as if the second guessing is beginning though.
May 4, 2011, 06:40 PM
I dont mind that the pictures aren't up for grabs, But someday I want to see @ least one death pix
May 4, 2011, 06:47 PM
A compound was built in Afghanistan that mirrored the target compound in every (external) aspect. Obviously they did not know the layout of furniture, etc., in the interiors of each room, however, they could duplicate the overall compound and structures with considerable accuracy.
Then several months of practice occurred, to work out the operational details.
Then too, our guys are simply very, very good.
I suppose its also fair to say that Mr. Murphy did not break wrong for us either. Fate always plays a role, to some extent.
Bravo to the guys who went in. They laid it on the line to get this POS.
By the way - I am astounded that the issue of whether OBL was armed or not even merits notice.
As far as I recall, no one in the World Trade Center was armed on September 11, 2001 either. Nor were they combatants. It didn't seem to make much difference to the attackers.
May 4, 2011, 07:08 PM
Mr. Murphy did in fact come out to play. They lost a chopper upon insertion, destroyed it, still carried out the operation, and were gone with Osama assuming ambient temperature on the floor of a chopper. I believe a spokesman stated the loss of the chopper added 8 minutes to the predicted length of the raid. That is quite impressive.
May 4, 2011, 07:30 PM
If this quote from CNN is true, then the compound was not heavily armed:
"The commandos also recovered five cell phones, audio and video equipment, "lots" of paper documents and some five guns, including AK-47s and pistols, a U.S. official told CNN homeland security correspondent Jeanne Meserve."
May 4, 2011, 07:47 PM
That part puzzles me a bit (disclaimer: no military service and little firearm experience.) Why a 40-minute gunfight with OBL apparently unarmed, and just three or four men old enough to handle a weapon? The elapsed time was certainly long enough for the Pakistani Army to notice, and respond, to a gunfight in progress down the block from the national military academy. If someone was in a well-fortified position, wouldn't a LAW or some other concrete cracker have been used?
The chance of Pakistani intervention was, IMHO, the biggest single risk of the operation. Quite apart from AF detection and interception, the time elapsed could have permitted armor to surround the compound, with enough automatic weapons to keep the copters on the ground. A gunfight with the Pakistani Army was a distinct possibility. The event turned out wonderfully well, but even so the risks are hair-raising even in retrospect.
May 4, 2011, 07:56 PM
Hair stand on end? The risks that the special forces routinely take would cause me to loose all my hair. <wry grin>
I'm *WAAAAYYY* out of my depth on this one. Given Bin Laden's expressed intention to die fighting, his promotion of suicide (really, homicide) bombers, and his apparent disregard for innocent life, though, I don't think that it was possible not to take horrendous risks when trying to take him out -- at least, not if we were to behave like decent human beings and not just another group of sociopathic killers on a different side. Dropping a JDAM on that compound would have constituted reckless disregard for innocent neighbors. Any other approach meant sending our people in, which meant taking significant risks.
I'll leave a detailed discussion of exactly what those risks were to people with combat experience.
May 4, 2011, 07:57 PM
There could not have been a 40 minute firefight. What was there to fire on? A small security detail and OBL himself. Wasn't the whole thing from the time the first pair of boots hit the ground till the birds were back up and heading back to Afghanistan approximately 40 minutes? Any gunfire would have been short and concise, the rest of the time was used to search the compound and gather up anything of intelligence value, and destroy the downed helo.
May 4, 2011, 08:14 PM
The most wanted man in the world is finally found and killed, after nearly a 10 year man-hunt. Yet our government does not provide any physical evidence; not publicly, to prove he has been killed. I hope our spec war boys actually got him; I know they are up to the task, the government claims they acomplished, but I have to be dubious. If they did get him, as they claim, then why in the world would they withhold the proof from the public? I just have to wonder if he hasn't been dead for sometime; killed in some air raid or just from the stress of hiding all these years? Like I said, I have great faith in our spec war boys, but I have little faith in the government.
May 4, 2011, 08:22 PM
According to this report (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42906279/ns/world_news-death_of_bin_laden/), only one man in the entire compound was armed. Kind of makes you go HMMMMM...
May 4, 2011, 09:15 PM
Get your Google world map up, . . . find Abbatobad, . . . then Bin Laden.
His compound was out in the open, . . . and there was a second team in two more helo's sort of "just around the corner".
Most military installations are just that, . . . an installation for the military. Guns are locked up on armory's, . . . and it would have taken at least a couple of hours to get any real resistance rounded up and ready for a fire fight, . . . considering you could find enough of those yellow dogs to man up and go against a Blackhawk that came calling in the night.
That area of the world does not have armies, . . . they have human waves of cowards with AK's that will ambush you in a heartbeat, . . . but run like a scalded monkey once rounds begin being returned.
I would say that there was enough intel on this mission that they knew exactly which room Geronimo was in, . . . and probably even the direction his mattress pointed. Long green cash will buy that kind of info for you if you are patient and careful, . . . and it looks like the boys over there were both.
All in all, . . . great mission, . . . it will never make up for all the guys lost, . . . but it drives a silver cross through the heart of dracula for a while anyway.
May God bless,
May 4, 2011, 09:39 PM
Given that there's no information on the specific tactics employed, it's very difficult to discuss the tactics.
More or less everything other than the outcome is speculation and that's not going to be productive, especially with so many folks who would, apparently, rather talk about everything to do with the raid OTHER than tactics.
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