Defensive Shooting Statistics

[TINCUP AL]

Does anyone have any online sources for statistics on civilian defensive shootings like number of shots fired, at what distances, location, etc. ?
I was reading a similar thread that had info on police officers, and would like to find out about civilians. thank you

[matthew temkin]

I really don't know if any exist.
Probably the closest would be the NYPD SOP 9 stats that relate to off duty incidents.

[David Armstrong]

AFAIK, there is no nationwide data of that type, on-line or not. There are some local/regional studies that popup, and there is a fair amount of unpublished literature on it that you can dig out. You can do a lot of it yourself, as some of us do, but it takes time.

[Hammer1]

Some of the published data on Handgun Effectiveness has been challenged as to its authenticity.

Might read some of the challenges made by Dr. Fackler and associates.

.

[Starz26]

try www.gunfacts.info

[Keltyke]

Who cares?

Carry as many guns and as much ammo as you deem necessary for YOUR area and any potential situation you may encounter. All statistics and spreadsheets will tell you is what someone else in another part of the country, in a different scenario and with different training did. Doesn't apply to you, at all.

[David Armstrong]

Carry as many guns and as much ammo as you deem necessary for YOUR area and any potential situation you may encounter. All statistics and spreadsheets will tell you is what someone else in another part of the country, in a different scenario and with different training did. Doesn't apply to you, at all.
How do you figure out what to deem necessary with any accuracy then? Knowing what is likely to happen gives you a starting point to decide these sorts of things.

[Japle]

How do you figure out what to deem necessary with any accuracy then? Knowing what is likely to happen gives you a starting point to decide these sorts of things.

No, it doesn’t. Knowing what the “typical” scenario is doesn’t tell you a thing about what you’ll run into. Prepare for something about three times as bad as anything you’ve ever heard of. That’s your starting point.

In the entire history of gunfighting, there has never been a case where one of the shooters wished he had a smaller gun that held fewer rounds of less powerful ammo.

[Keltyke]

Knowing what is likely to happen gives you a starting point to decide these sorts of things.

Not unless the statistics are for your particular area and lifestyle. As someone else posted, think of the worst thing that could probably happen where you are, and prepare for that.

For example, in my area, convenience store robberies are usually committed by a lone BG. If anything goes amiss, like the clerk fights back, they usually take off, even when armed. So, I don't need to carry 2-15 round mags and a backup gun with reloader for that scene. Now, if, in your area, gang violence with multiple assailants is common, then carry the firepower to deal with it.

As someone posted in another thread - sometimes your gun is best used to give you time and space to GET AWAY, rather than put the BG down, permanently or otherwise.

You're not out there to fight a prolonged war, just to survive a brief encounter.

[Double Naught Spy]

Who cares?
That would be TINCUP AL. He asked the question. Did you not comprehend that as the original post?

Carry as many guns and as much ammo as you deem necessary for YOUR area and any potential situation you may encounter. All statistics and spreadsheets will tell you is what someone else in another part of the country, in a different scenario and with different training did. Doesn't apply to you, at all.

He has simply made an information request for reasons YOU do not know and you are putting down his request as invalid because of some singular preconceived notion. Why?

[Japle]

He’s has simply made an information request that can’t be responded to in any way that will help him prepare for what’s going to happen to him. Nobody knows what’s going to happen to him.

Odds are, it’ll be a short fight with zero to almost zero notice. Range will be arms length to 10 feet. Everyone involved will be moving in unpredictable ways.

But, it might not be that way at all. He may see it coming and be able to get ready, take cover, call for help, get the hell out of the area.

Bad guys plan their fights to give them all the advantage and give you the shaft. They don’t plan their fights based on statistics on civilian defensive shootings like number of shots fired, at what distances, location or anything else that will help with your planning.

Since you can’t plan on the BG’s actions, give yourself the best chance you can by carrying the gun(s) you can fight with the best. You might love .45s (I do), but be able to do your best shooting with a Glock 19 (I do). Don’t fit your gun to your clothes, fit your clothes to your choice of fighting gun. Don’t carry a .32 just because it’s comfortable. Don’t carry anything in a way that requires two hands to get it into action. Be prepared for the really bad stuff. Planning for the wrong part of the statistical curve can get you killed.

[Keltyke]

He has simply made an information request for reasons YOU do not know and you are putting down his request as invalid because of some singular preconceived notion. Why?

Because the results for ANY study in ANY area except his, and factoring in his lifestyle, would be non sequitur. The results would not necessarily or probably follow to be the same for his location and would not be of any practical benefit to him.

As others have said, each location and situation is different and you can't rely on separate studies to predict each one.

BTW, where are the studies you provided? I noticed your reply was your singular pre-conceived notion, too.

Also, if you will read my subsequent posts, you will see I said just about the same thing you did.

Who cares? If a piece of information will not help my situation, then I don't care.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

Precise figures don't exist. It would be a worthy project to do such.

Forensic pathologists are doing something like this for suicides and homocides for single towns.

I would hazard that Kleck's books and articles are the best source but Gary doesn't get into the technical details.

Some criminologist with grant support might analyze the records from one town.

The next issue would be to see if such data offer any insight into what a civilian should do. That would be very complex.

[TINCUP AL]

I was not asking to find out what would happen to me. I was just asking for any information that anyone might have. Information is a good thing to have on your side. I would not want to dismiss it because someone felt it doesn't apply. You can learn a great deal by looking at the information involving law enforcement shootings. Although I personally don't believe that those statistics vary that much from the civilian sector, I was still wondering if anyone had any resources for any such information. Thanks to all who have had input pertaining to my question.

[peetzakilla]

http://www.guncite.com/

Lots of info

[Japle]

Al,

Sorry our responses haven’t been all that helpful.

I don’t believe that police and civilian shootings are similar enough to be of much help. Cops often get into gunfights because they’re searching for BGs, doing raids, working under cover, etc. Civilians, at least the smart ones, do their best to stay away from situations where they might get into trouble. Cops run toward the sound of gunfire. We run the other way.

On the other hand, guns, ammo and shooting techniques are similar enough to be useful. Carrying what your local cops carry is frequently a good idea.

Recommended reading on this subject:

In the Gravest Extreme and Stressfire, both by Mas Ayoob
The Farnam Method of Defensive Handgunning by John Farnam
Guns, Bullets and Gunfights by Jim Cirillo

[David Armstrong]

I was just asking for any information that anyone might have. Information is a good thing to have on your side. I would not want to dismiss it because someone felt it doesn't apply. You can learn a great deal by looking at the information involving law enforcement shootings.
Good job, Al. Yes, the more information you have the better your decisioin-making process. The issues of guns and gunfighting seem to be particularly rife with folks who think ignorance of an issue is better, and that opinions trump facts. LE shootings can be a great source of information as long as you take care to remember that applicability can vary widely. Remember, you're concern probably should focus on what is likely to happen as well as what is not likely. You may be wrong, but with limited resources one needs to plan based on something other than the latest adventure flick out of Hollywood.

[Keltyke]

I never meant to demean or belittle anyone in my answer. I apologize if it came across in that way. I am sometimes very blunt and tend to say just what's on my mind. All I meant was, unless the statistics are for the poster's area and situation, they may not be very helpful or could perhaps even be misleading. That might endanger the poster if he followed them. No quest for knowledge should be ignored, but in this case, I'm afraid it might be a question without a real, factual, useful answer.

For example, statistics for a Los Angeles, CA surburb wouldn't be germane to Spartanburg, SC. The areas are just to different.

[Sportdog]

Compared to you I am a rookie on this site. I have gathered, by doing some reading on this area of TFL, that you are some type of educator and that your field has something to do with Law Enforcement. What is your exact title? What field experience do you have with criminal violence? Are you a military veteran with any combat experience? If you have been involved in some type of use of firearms what was that experience and what was the long term ramifications of that action such as department investigations, civil or criminal charges, or personal problems as a result of that activity? You give the impression that you are an expert in the field of criminal violence and I want to know just what your background is, if you feel inclined to provide that information. Thank you.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

That's a PM question and not relevant to the topic.

Back to the issue - Gerald has something of a point. Folks tend to look only at central tendency stats and really don't move beyond that. Furthermore, they really don't get the multivariate factors that produce any outcome.

However, good stats really don't exist that breakdown civilian gun fights along lots of dimensions. We know some very crude things like most don't involve shots fired. We know that calibers of >= to 38 SPL seem roughly equivalent.

I asked Kleck - whom I've met several times - if we know how deterrence relates to caliber of gun - and guess what - we don't know. We just have a story or two. Nor did Gary Mauser, a well known scholar of the issues.

Lately, I've discussed with a local medical examiner what happens in rifle based homocides - she's trying to get a handle on that.

Like I said - for really useful info - we would need more studies that take a reasonably large sample of DGUs and break them down.

Otherwise - the mean number of shots and average distance are interesting but not useful in predicting your behavior.

If you want a good read about how such stats aren't that useful in prediction, read the Black Swan - a book about prediction and take a good research design course.

PS - to read about me - my sig is relevant.

[David Armstrong]

For example, statistics for a Los Angeles, CA surburb wouldn't be germane to Spartanburg, SC. The areas are just to different.
Not really. Human nature is human nature, behavior is behavior, and we don't see that much variation based just on location. A store robbery is much the same whether it be in LA or SC. Personal interactions tend to be quite similar assuming similar cultural imperatives. As Glenn points out the stats aren't real broad, but what stats there are tend to reflect certain commonalities.

[Sportdog]

I don't see moderator beside your name. You won't tell me what to post and what not to post. Mind your own business and if you don't like my posts, don't read them. If you are reading this Glen, please tell us what your credentials are that make you think that you are so important. Even if you do have good credentials, you never learned very good behavior. You are rude and condesending to others on this board. Nuff said.

[David Armstrong]

Ummm, Glenn is one of the more sensible and informed posters around here, and was right. The info you want is not a public forum issue and not relevant to this topic. So I have sent you a PM.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

Good forum behavior consists of staying with the thread and not to thread hi-jack.

I should not have to ignore posts that pollute a thread with some personality conflict.

Even this reply violates this principle and I regret it. However, my comment on your behavior was embedded in my intelligent discussion of statistical prediction. In that I am well trained. Thus, I wasted a few electrons.

The OP wanted some info - a legitimate request. From being a scholar of the issue - I contribute:

1. Similar stats to the SOP-9 really don't exist. Experts in civilian DGUs say that.
2. Some methodologies exist that could determine such. Like I said, such work is starting in small defined areas - I've seen two studies on the shotgun and rifle homocides. But they aren't useful in determining tactical decisions, they were more for forensic usage by medical examiners.
3. I extrapolate on where folks will go with the statistics - overuse of central tendency as a predictor most situations and not taking into account extremes and multivariate interactions.
4. Folks overvalue one or two cases - they are good cautionary tales but aren't great grounds for generalities.

I regret for Tincup Al - that we don't have good data.

[Sportdog]

Thanks for the PM. Very informative. As far a Glenn goes. Whether he is a good poster on this board or not, whether your personal information that I asked for was pertinent to this thread or not, nothing excuses poor behavior. Information can be communicated in a manner that does not involve the use of condesending or insulting language. The value of his contributions to this board become diminished when this type of behavior is excercised. Common courtesy has not gone out of style and should be excercised on this board or in any other aspect of life. I'm sure that I'm not the only person that frequents this board thinks that what I am saying has merit.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

That's a PM question and not relevant to the topic.


That is a factual statement. If you find that condescending, I can't do anything about that.

[Sportdog]

Nobody asked for your "factual statement". That is the job of the board staff. As I said, you do not have moderator by your name. If you want to be a moderator, maybe the staff would welcome you. Until such time, keep your opinions to my posts to yourself or PM the mods and let them handle it. I don't tell you what to post and what not to post and I certainly think that David is capable of handling himself.

[TINCUP AL]

My thanks to everyone who has contributed to this this thread. There have been some good points brought up. I would like to share the information that I have gathered and the conclusions that I have made up to this point.

I have been looking for just some basic info such as the average shots fired during an encounter, distance, hits or misses, time of day, etc. . Most of the information that I have been able to come up with has involved law enforcement. Other than the fact that LEO's are more likely to be involved, and in some cases don't have the obligation to retreat, I think that the information is very relevant to the general public. I think the information is about the same no matter who is pulling the trigger.

For example, I have determined that the majority ( there are exceptions ) of gunfights are over in 5 shots or less. More shootings occur at night. The majority of gunfights are at a distance of 10 feet or less. The average hits per shots fired is 50 percent. ( and that is at the 10 feet or less distance )

To summarize. The majority of gunfights are at 10 feet or less, with 5 shots or less being fired, and half of those 5 shots hitting their target. Now, there are a lot of other variables, but this is good information to know. These are statistics that are not new to some people, but are to others. I was looking for actual documents that prove these are true. I found what I was looking for with the help of the people on this thread. Thank you.

If anyone has anymore insight into this, I would appreciate hearing it. Thank you.

[Japle]

Al,

I believe you’re pretty close about the 50% hit ratio for civilian shootings. Oddly enough, the hit ratio for police is much lower and for BGs it’s much higher – 90%+. That’s because the BGs don’t start shooting unless they’re sure the fight is going to go their way. Their goal is to get close and use surprise.
Cops and civilians usually start shooting as a response to attack. When you start “behind the power curve”, your accuracy suffers.

In this society, if someone is looking at you in a hostile manner, the normal reaction is to look away. You think you’re saying, “I don’t want any trouble”. The BG is hearing, “I won’t fight you. I’m a victim”.

Stay alert. If someone looks suspicious, watch him and make sure he knows you’re watching him.
It’s rude to stare. Tough. He’ll get over it and you’ll get to go home.

[orionengnr]

Now that was a good post. Short and succinct. The last two paragraphs were especially enlightening.
Good job, Japle.

[TINCUP AL]

There is actually quite a bit of information in the last few years of the New York Police Department's Firearms discharge report. The 50% hit ratio is an eye opener. Not to start the whole semi versus revolver debate, but that 5 shot revolver that suddenly has 2 to 3 good shots in it will make you think. I know that the reports that I have been reading includes a lot of 5 shot revolvers, but it still makes you think that a few more rounds could be comforting.

Japle, where did you find your statistics ? Thanks

[JohnKSa]

What is your exact title? What field experience do you have with criminal violence? Are you a military veteran with any combat experience? If you have been involved in some type of use of firearms what was that experience and what was the long term ramifications of that action such as department investigations, civil or criminal charges, or personal problems as a result of that activity?The staff is not interested in expending the effort to investigate and generate dossiers on "experts" in order to verify that they are who they say they are.

Therefore such inquiries are largely pointless. If the person wishes to respond and attempt to set himself up as an expert based on his credentials and experience then he may make the attempt, but by so doing he opens himself to more personal criticism than is generally acceptable at TFL.

If the person does not wish to respond then that's the end of it.

Given that the person has not responded I'd say that's the end of it.

[dchi]

Try downloading some video clips from live leak.com or some other youtube type source. You can see real footage of shootout, robberies and assaults. Most are very close like 3 yards, very fast with both side exchanging rapid fire until they are empty. Most shots dont hit anything, and most of the people are firing without aiming. They are ducking and firing over their heads. And the bad guys are usually the ones that shoot first.

One good one I saw was a robberie in a Thailand gold shop. Not that this was good, but the video was very clear, it showed tactical errors and it showed good effect of what happens when people get shot. 3 guys come in blasting with pistols. A cop/security gaurd is in the back office. He comes out shooting and drops 2 guys in the shop right away. He runs out the front door to go after the 3rd guy. As he runs past the 2 guys on the ground, one isn't dead yet. He's laying on his back and fires one shot above his head. It hits the cop in the side of the ribs. The cop falls down imediately and his body slid a little it. He didn't even twitch. It looks as if he died instantly before he even hit the ground. The guy that shot him lowers his arm and dies just about 5 seconds later. They all were using FMJ or round nose bullets. Everything happend at a distance of about 2-4 yards. It lasted about 5 seconds with about 12 rounds total being fired. Everyone droped immediately after being shot. The one bad guy was only able to move one arm just a few seconds, but unfortunatley thats all it took. A shop girl who was behind the counter was also shot and killed. In all 4 people died and one bad guy got away. Sad the they didn't ask for anything, they just came in shooting intending to kill everyone inside.

[WESHOOT2]

While history might teach us about what already happened, it is unreasonable for us to expect it to teach us what will happen.

History taught me I will not get to decide what happens.
What happens will be unique to my immediate circumstance.
Why we "prepare for the unexpected".

I have lived all over this great country, and in my actual experience there is a definite difference in human behavior based on region.


There are no statistics for what happens to me, and history will be decided by the survivors.
I am an expert at surviving; my credentials are that I am still here.

[Japle]

Japle, where did you find your statistics?

Mas Ayoob, Dave Spaulding, Gabe Suarez, John Farnam and other places I can’t remember offhand.
Of course, as my wife will tell you, sometimes I just make stuff up!!

[OldMarksman]

Originally posted by Japle: I don’t believe that police and civilian shootings are similar enough to be of much help. Cops often get into gunfights because they’re searching for BGs, doing raids, working under cover, etc. Civilians, at least the smart ones, do their best to stay away from situations where they might get into trouble. Cops run toward the sound of gunfire. We run the other way.

Or get into a safe place and let the threat come to us.

I think that's an extremely good comment, relevant not only to the question at hand but also to many other discussion topics regarding firearm choice, tactics and strategy, etc. Same comment applies to SEALS, Special Operations Command forces, FBI....

[David Armstrong]

Oddly enough, the hit ratio for police is much lower and for BGs it’s much higher – 90%+.
Not so odd when you consider the police role and how it impacts the shooting decision. Also, if you look at the BG hit rate in actual gunfights with the police, the hit rates are very similar.

[David Armstrong]

Given that the person has not responded I'd say that's the end of it.
Actually the person has responded in a PM, just as he said he would.

[David Armstrong]

While history might teach us about what already happened, it is unreasonable for us to expect it to teach us what will happen.
But it is quite reasonable to expect that history will teach us what is likely to happen, and thus it can guide our training and our planning. That is the essence of this kind of stuff. While we might not be able to predict events with a 100% success rate that doesn't mean that we can't or shouldn't make any predictions at all.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

Past history is useful as it gives us a range of possibilities. Not to beat a dead horse, IMHO - the problem is the use of central tendency to assume that is close to what always happens and that folks need to take a serious looks at what extreme situations do you deal with.

For example, thinking about this thread going to the office - I pondered the average distance of a gun fight. It's said to be short. However, that's the usual single mugger, dude in the living scenario.

It is a rare but not impossible situation to face a rampage shooter. The length of our hallways, leading to a target rich classroom, from my office is about 50 yards. IIRC, an AF MP took down a rampage shooter with an M9 at 75 yards. So, does the average distance based on mostly property crime distance aid me in thinking about a work place nutso scenario?

The reports of central tendency is what you typically get from gun rag stats. Ayoob, Farnam, etc. may mention the average and but having met and trained with them - they are also aware that isn't the only game in town.

Forensic literature found that with rifle homocides - 85% or so took place at a significant distance. However, there are more handgun homocides. So is a simple distance average enough?

[David Armstrong]

It is a rare but not impossible situation to face a rampage shooter. The length of our hallways, leading to a target rich classroom, from my office is about 50 yards. IIRC, an AF MP took down a rampage shooter with an M9 at 75 yards. So, does the average distance based on mostly property crime distance aid me in thinking about a work place nutso scenario?
I think that is the key, Glenn. Are you only concerned with the work place nutso scenario? We all have limited resources, some more limited than others. Do we best expend those resources preparing for the rare but not impossible situation, or do we best expend those resources preparing for the far more likely possibility? And how do we determine what is rare and what is likely without understanding the data available to us? As an example, for a long time we taught our police officers to be pretty good, but slow, shots at 25 yards, but didn't spend much in teaching them to fight fast and furious at close range. Once we started really looking at what went on in those fights, we began to change the focus of the training. Certainly it would be nice if we could all spend 40 hours a week on the range with unlimited free ammo being trained by top instructors, but since we can't how do we decide what to devote our resources to without a good understanding of what we are likely (and unlikely) to face? Of course, whether it really matters much in the long run or not is a different question<G>!

[Capt Charlie]

Nobody asked for your "factual statement". That is the job of the board staff.
The job of the board staff is to keep things civil and on topic. This is neither. Let's keep this on topic and keep the urination competitions over credentials out of it, OK?

[TINCUP AL]

This is a good discussion. David and Glenn, I would have to say that I agree with you both. There are an unlimited amount of variables to any situation, and it would serve anyone good to practice all that you can on those variables. It is still good to know what the "average situation" is like ( if there is such a thing ) but I think you get what I mean. We teach our students what the statistics say the averages are, but we have them train for all possible scenarios, as the possibilities are endless as you well know. I am all ears for more info. Please continue on.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

I agree TCAl - the crucial principle is to understand the various situations and plan for reasonable contingencies.

I agree with David that we have to train for what is modal and that past bullseye oriented training did not. There are quite a few studies showing that modern FOF training for what Dave discusses has dramatically improved performance. One thing that was neat about the NTI was that they threw all kinds of stuff at you. From up close to a surprise guy up hill 150 yards away.

I had a simple point which was that folks used the average as an exclusive statistical viewpoint but you two have it nailed.

Discussions like this aid in the evolution of professional and civilian training. Personally, I'm trying to be eclectic in what I do. Luckily I have some time and motivation to do such. For example, I've been shooting some steel lately as it has some longer range pistol targets.

Ah - I just like trigger time. :D