One shot stops [Archive] - TheFiringLine Forums

chrisandclauida2

March 16, 2007, 02:03 AM

you know this but i hate anyone giving the one shot stop crap any attention at all so here it goes. where did i put that soap box....here it is. [sounds of me clearing my throat and warming up my best southern baptist preacher delivery]

ONE SHOT STOPS ARE A MYTH. THEY WILL, ALONG WITH DOUBLE TAPS, ENERGY DUMPING AND ALL OTHER BS OF THE SHOOTING WORLD, GET YOU KILLED.

when you train you train to shoot center mass till the threat stops.

if you train with a certain caliber that is supposed to provide 97 percent one shot stops you will get killed

if you train double tap then assess you will get killed.

if you train thinking a uber bullet powder combo will dump energy you will get killed.

i have not for the life of me found out why educated people do things that raise the chances of getting themselves or, worse, a loved one killed.

YOU WILL ACT UNDER STRESS AS YOU TRAIN. if you train with ANY SORT OF HESITATION in mind like one shot stop or double tap or double tap plus head shot you give someone who is already trying to kill you a better chance to do it.

forget all that crap. chose a weapon you can shot well with and will carry. then train to draw as you will carry. then train shooting center mass till the threat is dead. dont stop shooting till they are dead. in a shoot out there are 2 outcomes. 1 is you live 2 is you die.

all you training of shooting from cover, shooting while moving to cover, shooting to gain distance or anything else you chose to do is to one end. that is shoot center mass till they are dead. forget anything like one shot stop double tap etc etc etc that will ,in deadly times of stress and attempting to live, cause you to hesitate.

all that stopping to assess your one shot or double tap does is give the bad guy another chance to kill you. you have to being otherworldly violence and firepower and duration of firepower to bear till the threat is dead.

i think it was Machiavelli that said [paraphrasing] if you force me to violence it shall be so over whelming so so fast and so hard that the thought of revenge will never enter your mind.

you either bring it to win it or dont bring it at all. if you get in a fist fight you get in close and become so violent so unstoppable and pummel the adversary till they think they will die immediately if they dont give up. the same goes for a life and death encounter. there is no second place.

so really, training is simple isn't it?

if you have to know all modern expanding bullets 9mm/38 and above are, within the margin of error, the same with the 357 125 grn fmjhp and 45acp fmjhp the tops. none are 100 percent and the charts all have some sort of bias and mistakes that make them irrelevant.

gdvan01

March 16, 2007, 02:08 AM

...ALONG WITH DOUBLE TAPS, ...GET YOU KILLED.Oh? And where did you gather THAT statistical tidbit from?

kgpcr

March 16, 2007, 05:56 AM

5 times in the chest with a .45 and not killed.... bull****.... i would have to see it. they were certainly not anywhere close to center mass in the chest. I just dont believe it...

kickshot85

March 16, 2007, 08:29 AM

Samurai

March 16, 2007, 08:32 AM

No hard data, but from what I've read, the chances are next-to-nothing.

People who drop from gunshots drop from blood loss (or psychological shock). It can take a long time.

BlueTrain

March 16, 2007, 08:36 AM

I believe the information presented by those who have done such studies is credible and more or less statistically reliable. The question is whether it is relevant or not. By that I mean that the studies have been limited to people who had only been shot once, within the study's definitions. So while probably not false, it is only of limited value. Besides, how could you incorporate that into your training? And anyway, it doesn't seem to change anyone's mind on the subject when their own ideas are different and the results pretty much fall out the way they might have been predicted in the first place.

On the other hand, if you only manage to achieve a single hit! How do you choose your hunting ammuntion?

stephen426

March 16, 2007, 09:22 AM

If you can afford to shoot 400 rounds in a range session then go ahead and empty your magazine when a threat emerges. Personally, I would never rely on a one shot stop, not when there is another 14 rounds in the magazine. I have witnessed someone take three shots from a 12-gauge within 15 yards, one in the abdomen one in the upper chest-left shoulder area, and one in the upper thigh, all with 00 buckshot and keep fighting. He was the good guy in this fight and passed away afterwards but managed to eliminate the threat first.

Your wonderful advice is going to land someone in jail. :barf: :rolleyes:

You might be able to afford the ammunition, but can you afford a good defense attorney? Can you afford most probably losing your job when you get arrested? Don't turn a legitimate self defense shooting into a man slaughter or even a murder charge. You shoot until the threat has been stopped. If that means the person stops fighting because he is unwilling or unable to fight, that means you stop shooting. Forensics and ballistics will paint a very accurate picture of both your positions when the shots were fired. If the guy dropped with the first 1 or 2 shots and you empty "your other 14" on him when he is on the ground, prepare to go to jail for a long time. If the attacker stops fighting I would cover him with the weapon, try to kick away the weapon, and then call the police. If he attempts to continue fighting, you continue to shoot.

As for you witnessing someone taking 3 shots of 00 buck and continue fighting, what relavence does that have to your arguement? If one of those shots caught him square in the chest or the head, the fight would have been over immediately. While shots to the leg and abdomen can be deadly, as they were in the case you mentioned, I would still call that poor shot placement since nothing vital (heart, lung, brain, spinal chord) were hit.

Lurper

March 16, 2007, 09:56 AM

I am always amazed at the reaction this topic evokes and how most people do not understand the term one shot stop. NO ONE is saying that this bullet or that bullet has a x% chance of stopping someone with one shot every time. What they are saying is that historically in real incidents the attack was stopped x% of the time with one shot. If you don't know the difference, go back to school. One shot stop has nothing to do with knock down power, killng power or anything else.

The next step is to extrapolate the data to show that x caliber does x damage - this is where the gelatin comes in. Then associate the data with the gelatin results to show that x round does x amount of damage and with the proper placement has x change of incapacitating the attacker. Nowhere does it advocate firing one shot and expecting an attack to stop. It's not about technique or even firearms as much as it is about statistics.

The problem with statistics is that one typically throws out the outlyers - those that are so outside the standard deviation that they are anomalies and therefore invalid. The other problem with this particular data is that there is no way to tell why the attack stopped. It may have stopped because the person no longer had the will to continue the fight or it could have stopped because they no longer had the ability to continue. In most studies, these would both be considered one shot stops.

So put away the soapboxes and look at it for what it really is. A way to quantify the historical and theoretical future performance of x caliber with x bullets. It is all about odds and percentages and has nothing to do with a "magic bullet".

Doug, here is a place to start:
http://www.firearmstactical.com/wound.htm

Doug.38PR

March 16, 2007, 10:01 AM

Lurper

March 16, 2007, 10:08 AM

It is also worth pointing out that the article in the FBI newsletter focuses more on the training aspect than the firearm. What they are saying in essence is what any good trainer says: keep firing until the threat is removed.

Hard question Doug. I would venture a guess that in most cases you would remove one first and then the other. If you hit the first "target" but didn't remove the threat before engaging the second, you still have two threats (who could or would be) engaging you. If you remove one, then you only have one. But it is most likely going to be dictated by the tactical situation.

fisherman66

March 16, 2007, 10:12 AM

I would prefer to avoid that situation if possible (two armed perps). If they have the drop you don't stand a chance if you stay still. I say find cover first and then deal with them one at a time rather than stand and deliver one apiece. If this is a property crime then I try my best to evade. If this is a gun fight I look for "high ground".

Musketeer

March 16, 2007, 10:23 AM

Lurper has it right. Use the data for what it is worth and nothing more. THe datat does have a place but anyone who puts it on an alter and bases all decisions on it is sadly mistaken.

If you have to face multiple assailents apply one to each and repeat as needed.

Glenn E. Meyer

March 16, 2007, 10:41 AM

There's no data set out there that can answer such a question with the precision usually seen in the rigorous experimental sciences.

The best I can glean is that quality handgun rounds of >= 38 SPL are all equally efficacious given you hit a crucial blood loss or CNS target.

You can find folks who absorb 45s and 00 and kept on ticking. Folks die from 25 ACP.

I think someone should get together a bunch of French goats and ... Never mind!

Also, I read folks who say move to cover and folks who say it's better to take a good shot. Every method you want is in the gun rags and has worked and/or failed for someone.

BouncerDan

March 16, 2007, 10:54 AM

IMO you should never keep shooting till the person is on the ground. You should shoot until the threat is eliminated. Basically what this means is that if you are able to shoot them in the shoulder and the BG drops the weapon they can no longer hurt. So why continue to shoot? Just my opinion.

David Armstrong

March 16, 2007, 11:01 AM

5 times in the chest with a .45 and not killed.... bull****.... i would have to see it. they were certainly not anywhere close to center mass in the chest. I just dont believe it..
There is belief, and then there is reality. Frequently the two have nothing in common. There are many cases of multiple CoM hits with .45 that have not killed/stopped the opponent, which is true of any handgun cliber.

David Armstrong

March 16, 2007, 11:04 AM

If one of those shots caught him square in the chest or the head, the fight would have been over immediately. While shots to the leg and abdomen can be deadly, as they were in the case you mentioned, I would still call that poor shot placement since nothing vital (heart, lung, brain, spinal chord) were hit.
FWIW, check out the story of Stacey Lim. Shot in the heart with a .357 Magnum, she was able to stay in the fight.

Rangefinder

March 16, 2007, 11:33 AM

The variance of caliber, range, bullet type, shot placement, individual reaction, and a whole wad of other factors are involved when you consider a one-shot stop. Seriously speaking, there really isn't a way to figure an accurate general "odds of success".

I know first hand of guys being shot and not even realizing it right away. But I also know of people who've been killed by a pellet gun. There are too many factors involved.

If you're considering the angle of multiple targets and having to fire--switch--fire, etc... The most you can really hope to achieve is to disable. This is not to mean the intent to kill isn't the objective, just that there is no real guarantee--and if you're in a multiple threat situation, you don't have the time to be overly concerned with it because even a wounded threat at your 12 is usually going to be less of a threat than the fully-functional threat at your 10 o'clock. In multiple threats, you take a piece at a time--and hope you get big enough pieces to end it with you still breathing.

David Armstrong

March 16, 2007, 11:59 AM

What prompted my question is the thought of if you have to shoot at more than one target.
While many advocate trying to shoot everybody once before shooting anybody twice, I take the opposite position. If you have a target, take it out, then start looking for the other target seems better to me. You've already got yourself tuned in to the first BG, no sense in having to go back and get tuned in again. My $.02.

David Armstrong

March 16, 2007, 12:02 PM

This year will go down in history as the first year a civilized nation has full gun control, our streets will be safer, our police more effective. The rest of the world will follow our lead into the future." Adolf Hitler 1939.

Off-topic, but important, IMO. That little statement has been floating around for a long time, and for almost as long a time it has been shown to be a fake quote. There is no evidence that Hitler ever said it.

Capt Charlie

March 16, 2007, 12:29 PM

What prompted my question is the thought of if you have to shoot at more than one target. Shoot one target once, then the other in quickdraw/pointshooting or start shooting one and wait 'til he goes down before you start shooting at the other(s) (if the latter then in the meantime they are shooting or striking at you)
This really is a tough one, and I'm not sure there's a concrete answer.

Our training on this has switched tracks several times over the years, but the general consensus today is to try to get one round into BG#1 and immediately concentrate fire on BG#2 until that threat ceases. Then return to BG#1.

There are no guarantees in this. The idea is to hope & pray that you've rattled BG#1 enough (note that I didn't say stop ;) ) to allow a few precious seconds to concentrate on BG#2. Concentrating only on one BG at a time allows the other to engage you unobstructed.

The problem with any way you do it is that you are attempting to apply a pre-set technique to a wildly varying set of circumstances. It may work; it may not.

One BG, two, or three, you must be dynamic both in your thinking and your movements, and be able to re-evaluate and switch tactics from split second to split second. Remember, even halfway competent BG's are going to be doing the same thing. Even then, a little Divine Providence or just dumb luck goes a long way toward surviving an encounter with multiple, armed BG's.

newerguy

March 16, 2007, 01:04 PM

+1 to Capt. Charlie. If you can do so from behind cover, you dramatically increase your odds, but two against one is bad luck. Your only hope is to hit the first guy with your first shot, drop the second guy, and move back to the first before they recover. Your caliber doesn't matter, because if you spend too much time on the first guy, the second will get you. Oh, and get some cover x2.

That said, if you have a real concern about multiple opponents, get some training. Advanced Handgund Defense through S&W runs $400 for two days. You may do better or worse depending on where you go. You own multiple handguns, but a good training course would be by far a better investment than a second firearm.

Smokin Joe

March 16, 2007, 01:24 PM

I always said, I'll empty that clip into the perp and then reload.

and it wont be slow, it would be at 5 shots per second.

2 seconds, 10 rounds center mass, if there is two perps then 5 each. and reload.

still standing after the reload ? do it again.

OBIWAN

March 16, 2007, 02:10 PM

I always used to subscribe to the "boarding house rules"

Everyone gets firsts before anyone gets seconds:D

I would likely default to that...however....

Were I gifted enough to make the split second decisions required I would be moving to put one bad guy between me and the other(s) while shooting him to the ground and (hopefully) getting to cover as I engage the other(s)

Smokin Joe

March 16, 2007, 02:13 PM

or hell, line them both up and use FMJ. :D

dawg23

March 16, 2007, 02:37 PM

What prompted my question is the thought of if you have to shoot at more than one target. Shoot one target once, then the other in quickdraw/pointshooting or start shooting one and wait 'til he goes down before you start shooting at the other(s) (if the latter then in the meantime they are shooting or striking at you)

The answer, as is so often the case, is "It depends." On a lot of things. One of which is your ability to deliver rapid, accurate shots.

If the fastest rate at which you can get accurate hits is one shot every three to five seconds, you may want to consider shooting each threat once before trying to neutralize the others.

If you can get accurate follow-up hits at intervals of .2 or .3 seconds, then David's approach is far better. While you have a good sight picture, pump multiple rounds before diverting your focus elsewhere. (Before the harpies jump in with fears of shooting a dude who is no longer a threat, I don't think what you do in a 1-second window of time is going to be a big problem for you if the first shot was "righteous," at least not where I live).

Other factors, in addition to your skill level, have to do with the relative positions of the threats (relative to each other and to you), the nature of their weapons (shotgun, knife tire iron ?), availability and proximity of cover, etc. etc., etc.

Just my opinions. But keep in mind I haven't written any books or gunrag articles on armed self defense. :)

Mikeyboy

March 16, 2007, 03:13 PM

In short, if a criminal attacks me, what are the chances that he is going to drop after receiving a round center mass?

Simple answer to the original question. One Shot Stop = Bullet in Brain.
All you need to worry about is if the bullet is effective enough to penetrate the skull and enough to do damage once it breaks thru.

Regardless of the caliber handgun, COM shots are never 100%. There is a lot of meat, bone, and clothing, or even kevlar that can throw things off. Heck you pierce into the heart and in the second or two before the guy expires , he can be determined enough to still move in to do you harm. On the other hand other BG could just give up and collapse, and bleed out where they lay. That is why Sanlow and Marshall's one stop precentages are subjective and actually can change from year to year. The COM is still a wise place to shoot at, just because its an easier target to hit, and there are a lot of vital organs in there that will make a the BG stop or die. Still destory the Brain and the CNS is gone, and the body does not function anymore. The switch in turn OFF.

If I had one dangerous BG and just one bullet left, I'm aiming for the head.

stephen426

March 16, 2007, 03:30 PM

FWIW, check out the story of Stacey Lim. Shot in the heart with a .357 Magnum, she was able to stay in the fight.

David,

Please do not quote me out of context. Kickshot85 was talking about someone taking 3 hits of 00 buck and staying in the fight. If you read his post, you would notice that the shots were to the shoulder, leg, and abdomen. The person shot did die from his injuries, but he not before he took out the person who shot him. If someone caught a load of 00 buck square in the chest (lets assume 12 gauge), I don't see how it is possible for them to continue the fight. The multiple rounds of 00 buck (assuming they penetrate sufficiently) will cause massive hemmoraging and a major drop in blood pressure, causing the person to pass out and ultimately die from blood loss. A single shot is quite different from this and even then, did that shot merely nick the heart or penetrate the heart walls. Don't compare apples to orangatangs. :p

stephen426

March 16, 2007, 03:41 PM

I am always amazed at the reaction this topic evokes and how most people do not understand the term one shot stop. NO ONE is saying that this bullet or that bullet has a x% chance of stopping someone with one shot every time. What they are saying is that historically in real incidents the attack was stopped x% of the time with one shot. If you don't know the difference, go back to school. One shot stop has nothing to do with knock down power, killng power or anything else.

The Marshall Sanow data is relavent. By showing how it has performed historically, it provides a very good indication of how it will perform in the future, assuming the conditions are very similar. While there are always outliers in the data, the high number of data makes it statistically significant. Perhaps you prefer we go back to theoretical speculation rather than looking at how the bullets have performed in real life.

I know the data is not perfect since there are many variables that are not recorded or addressed. For example, when you flip a coin and you would expect for it to land on heads about 50% of the time. That is not to say it would not be possible for a coin to land on heads 10 times in a row. Over time however, the trend should follow the 50/50 distribution.

Smokin Joe

March 16, 2007, 03:51 PM

A way to quantify the historical and theoretical future performance of x caliber with x bullets. It is all about odds and percentages and has nothing to do with a "magic bullet".

that one stop shot percent thing has NOTHING to do with future performance.

NOTHING.

that statistics is for RECREATIONAL purposes only, for FUN READING. not for anything in real life at all.

DO NOT use that as if it was real. DO NOT use it to shop for ammo, DO NOT take it seriously, and most of all DO NOT tell others of that study which is so flawed in its reportings.

Lurper

March 16, 2007, 04:55 PM

The Marshall Sanow data is relavent. By showing how it has performed historically, it provides a very good indication of how it will perform in the future, assuming the conditions are very similar. While there are always outliers in the data, the high number of data makes it statistically significant. Perhaps you prefer we go back to theoretical speculation rather than looking at how the bullets have performed in real life.

Aside from the fact that Marshall/Sanow have been largely discredited. Never forget the first rule of statistics:
Correlation does not equal causality.

The data should be used as a guide for measuring the amount of (theoretical) damage relative to another caliber. It is not an absolute measure. It has absolutely no relevance to tactics or technique. Yet, that is exactly how some try to use it. The data is not intended to infer that 1 shot from a .45 is going to stop someone faster than 1 shot from a .32. What it does infer is that a .45 does more damage relative to a .32 thus creating a larger margin of error in terms of shot placement. In essence giving you better odds of a one shot stop. The real problem is as mentioned earlier that a person who is incapacitated or a person who simply gives up is considered "stopped". That has nothing to do with the bullet's effect.

Those who use the data as a guide for what to carry, how many shots to fire, and myriad other tactical decisions do so at their own peril.

Skyguy

March 16, 2007, 05:34 PM

One should not infer that caliber trumps shot placement, even though some folk might imply that.
.

buckster

March 16, 2007, 06:12 PM

Try the Aguila 117 gr intelli-bullet. Boy does that puppy scream at 1350. They sound like a 45/70 when fired. What bark and bite at 565 lbs knock down. Your honor, I used the smallest round possible to stop him. Those things will up the edge on survival.

stephen426

March 16, 2007, 06:26 PM

One should not infer that caliber trumps shot placement, even though some folk might imply that.

Where do you get this from? Of course shot placement is critical, but lets assume shot placement is equal for all calibers. Otherwise, you cannot make any valid comparisons. Does it not make sense that a more powerful cartridge would inflict more damage and lead to faster incapacitation?

Aside from the fact that Marshall/Sanow have been largely discredited. Never forget the first rule of statistics:
Correlation does not equal causality.

Lurper,

So once something is statistically analyzed, all of the information concerning expected future performance becomes invalid... :rolleyes: Yeah... What ever. I've taken my share of stats as well and I still won't throw out the results completely. I will take Marshall and Sanow's findings with a grain of salt as I realize there are flaws in the data. Many will argue that caliber (size) is everthing in handgun cartridges and velocity is meaningless. How about historical performance differences between the .380 auto and the .357 magnum? Both are practically the same diameter. What about the .40 S&W compared to the .380 auto. I hardly believe that the .02 inch difference accounts for anything. Lets take this a step further. What about the venerable .45 acp versus .44 mag or .454 casull? I guess since handgun velocities are meaningless, expected future performance cannot be inferred by the data. Yeah, okay... whatever. :rolleyes: Companies pay big bucks for consumer research data even though the correlation of the data has no causation.

Lurper

March 16, 2007, 07:21 PM

Stephen
Marshall/Sanow were largely discredited for manipulating the sample (e.g. leaving out data that did not support their conclusion).

Expected future performance in terms of if I shoot x people with 1 round of x caliber x number will be one shot stops cannot be predicted. Yet that is constantly how people use the data.

First of all, shot placement is the single most important factor. I think we can all agree on that, right? Secondly, I never claimed that caliber was the major factor, it isn't. Size is no more important than velocity/penetration. They are all equal. Last time I checked, the only claim I supported was that the data shows damage of one caliber relative to another (meaning cartridge caliber, not diameter) and could not be considered as an absolute measure of effectiveness for dictating tactics or techniques to be used.

However, that being said you cannot support the argument that the next 100 incidents involving any caliber will produce the same results as in any of the tests. That is my point. The data is nowhere near comprehensive enough.

Anyone who believes that Marshall/Sanow, Hatcher/Thompson, Fackler or anyone elses tests are a measure of absolute stopping power is a fool.

Just because a company pays big bucks for data does not indicate that the data is valid or relevant. Ask R.J. Reynolds.

FM12

March 16, 2007, 09:37 PM

Some of you guys scare me...shoot til they stop offensive actions, NOT til they are dead. Once they cease and desist and you continue, some states may then consider you the aggressor. You can talk all the macho stuff you want to, but shoot only to stop them or incapacitate, NEVER to kill. you might also want to consider what you post here. I also believe in the " tried by twelve" mantra, but be careful about what you do and say. I expect a lot of naysayers about this post, but someone needs to say it.

Doug.38PR

March 16, 2007, 10:26 PM

FM12, I know attorneys like to banter back and forth that "shoot to stop not kill" langauge around, but it's really downright absurd when you stop and think about it. To shoot someone at all is DEADLY force. To shoot someone at all is essentially to shoot to kill (unless you are deliberately going for the leg or arm to wound...SOMETHING I DON'T RECOMMEND BTW....but even there it is legally considered deadly force.)

FM12

March 16, 2007, 10:34 PM

DOUG, I agree...However, when a person has stopped agressive actions, (either by throwing down the weapon, or shot to submission), its your duty to stop the attact/counterattack, don't you agree? AND Thanks for not jumping on me! Ken

Smokin Joe

March 16, 2007, 10:57 PM

Shoot to stop ?

if the guy is dead, that is stopped.

it takes 2 seconds to empty my mag (10) into the guy.

Smokin Joe

March 16, 2007, 11:02 PM

However, when a person has stopped agressive actions, (either by throwing down the weapon, or shot to submission), its your duty to stop the attact/counterattack, don't you agree?

VERY DANGEROUS,

u dont give the perp a chance to throw down his weapon. you fill him up with lead as fast as you can. (2 seconds)

that same time you take to "see if he had submitted" is the same time he will unload his mag into you. ( 2 seconds )

after you pump him fulla lead, your gun would be empty, WHILE YOU RELOAD, you can check to see if he had submitted or thrown down his weapon.

even if he is laying on the ground all wounded and bleeding, if that gun is still in his hand, he CAN shoot you. this is where you shoot him with another mag full.

THIS is real.

if you listen to all the media and other nonsense, one shot at his shoulder and the perp would drop the gun, fly back 15 feet and you hear him begging for his life...

Rangefinder

March 16, 2007, 11:15 PM

Smokin Joe>>If you feel you have a valid, life-threatening reason to draw on someone in self defense, okey-dokey. But if someone is attempting to submit/give up/ drop their weapon/ halt their attack---whatever you want to define it as, and you still shoot them? That isn't self defense anymore--it's murder.

Smokin Joe

March 16, 2007, 11:33 PM

forgive me if I sound harsh.

I'm not a LEO, I WILL NOT aim my firearm at a person and issue verbal commands.

therefore ACTION speaks LOUDER THAN WORDS.

if perp is holding a gun, and I believe he has intent to shoot me, or someone I care about, he WILL BE PUMPPED FULL OF LEAD, ( in 2 seconds ).

there is no mid way for me. Gun in hand = pummped fulla lead.

I guess you have never been lied to. perp says OK OK, DONT SHOOT ! then in 2 seconds, pumps your wife fulla lead.

Smokin Joe

March 16, 2007, 11:39 PM

pumpped fulla lead is just that you try your best to save your own self. you not supposed to shoot a dangerous perp that has the drop on your wife just ONCE or TWICE and ask him if he gonna stop.

but best be best, your enemy DEAD is the best. I assume you think wounded means stopped.... NO IT DONT,, see miami FBI shootout.

you shoot all you got into your ememy. ALL OF IT.

SeaMariner

March 16, 2007, 11:46 PM

First...

OSS is a statistic... and anybody who has ever taken a good statistics class knows the first rule about suchs numbers is they say exactly what their presenter wants them to say... Give a good statistician just about any set of numbers and they can hand you back a graph/chart/table that says exactly what you want... so OSS is pretty much BS since I seriously doubt anyone who buys into it has actually read the entire report down to why they threw out X number of one shot stop incidents, etc etc etc... I can go on and on about why buying it is bad but lets leave at that...

Second...

Shooting until the perp stops, runs, or you run out of ammo is perfectly acceptable where I live in legal circuits... in fact a FL man just dumped his entire 7rd mag at two perps today or yesterday in MO with praise from the cops... So depending on where you live, is it better to die or face possible persecution from the law for defending yourself... the proverbial "judged by 12 or carried by six" line. Are you so scared of the law that you'd rather run the chance of dying versus possible jail time? Makes me wonder...

But anyway..

One Shot Stop is a statistic... you're better off taking a wad of $20's to the range, renting a few different guns, and shooting to see what you like.... Shoot your friend's guns... talk to people at the range and listen to what they say.... I have NEVER failed to offer a mag out of one of my guns to someone who wanted to know what shooting the model was like and I've always been offered, when talking to a fellow shooter, to fire their piece to see what the weapon was like... We're, for the most part, a friendly bunch and shooting our guns is not like sleeping with our partners... We don't mind sharing. :D

CobrayCommando

March 17, 2007, 12:13 AM

In short, if a criminal attacks me, what are the chances that he is going to drop after receiving a round center mass?

I will try to answer your question with very rough guestimates.
Assuming you are using .38 spc. or better:

If:
He is on PCP or a similar drug: 30%
He is not on drugs: 70%+

If the guy is in the middle of physically assaulting you, he is probably jacked up on adrenaline and the odds are slim he will drop in one shot. Probably similar to if he was on PCP.

The real answer is that you can NEVER know in advance. Statistically, the bigger the hole you make, the better the odds of the person dropping in less shots, thereby increasing your odds of survival. However, there is some debate as to the worth of trading power for slower follow ups. Also, there is a heated ongoing discussion as to which cartridges produce the bigger holes in the first place.

.38 snub, Glock 17, 1911, or .44 magnum, basically just tradeoffs. Avoid the extreme ends of the spectrum I would say... A .22 magnum derringer or a .500 SW Magnum are not practical carry options IMO.

In a nutshell, just keep shooting.

chrisandclauida2

March 17, 2007, 01:05 AM

still so much misinformation.

head shots are not a guarantee of a stop. many have been shot in their head and still killed even though they die later.

the problem when people train with this crap in mind is they will fight like they train. that means if you shoot a double tap then add a head shot and stop and evaluate then you will do so in a fight and you could die.

ignore all this head shot crap double tap crap one shot stop crap energy dump crap and train to live thru a deadly encounter. none of that stuff has anything to do gunfighting. not one thing.

and for information during a fight you can shoot someone in the back or at angles that look like they are down and they wernt. there are many instances where during a fight while someone was defending themselves the shootee turned around and started to fall thus ending the threat 2 or 3 rounds before the shooters braid got the message threat over. while it looked like the shooter shot the threat in the back for good measure he didn't. same goes for when the threat falls backwards and gets a couple rounds at an angle that looks like he was down when shot or at a non threatening posture.

there are no absolutes except shoot center mass til the threat is gone.

stephen426

March 17, 2007, 01:50 PM

there are no absolutes except shoot center mass til the threat is gone.

Yeah... okay... What about failure to stops? What if the person you are shooting at happens to have a vest on? There is absolutely nothing wrong with 2 to the chest and one to the head. The shots to the chest may kill him EVENTUALLY, but a shot to the nervous system (brain shot) will put him down right away almost every time. We are not talking about grazing shots or shots that do not hit the brain. FBI snipers are trained to shoot for the medulla oblongata (area or the brain behind the eyes). You claim that there are no absolutes except for what you have posted. Please state your credentials and your experience to prove your "expertise". :rolleyes:

Smokin Joe

March 18, 2007, 12:41 AM

Please state your credentials and your experience to prove your "expertise".

I'm a mall commando. but I'm still gonna empty the whole mag.

habeuscorpse

March 18, 2007, 09:37 AM

One thing needs clarifying here. If a perp stops aggressing, you do not have a "duty" to stop shooting him or her. Rather you have lost the safe harbor of the applicable self defense statute and it is in your legal best interest to quit your response if you are no longer threatened.

Actually, the standard is if a reasonable person would no longer feel threatened. That is a roundabout way of saying a jury may eventually wind up second guessing your actions and applying up to twelve different interpretations of the event.

Nanuk

March 18, 2007, 11:28 AM

I have been in law enforcement for 28 years and seen many, many shootings.
I carry the biggest most powerful weapon I can shoot well, loaded with quality HP ammo. By policy I carry an H&K P2000 40 S&W loaded with 155 JHP's. Off duty when I do not carry the H&K I use my 3" 629. I always throw my ScTi 357 into the mix. The only thing that I have seen someone shot with that dropped them on the spot, every time was a 12 ga slug.

Use what you shoot the best with good ammo and don't sweat things you have no control over. Make every shot count. My dad taught me to shoot with a single shot 22, as his dad taught him. To many people get hung up on a particular platform or brand. Do not be concerned with having the cover gun from Guns and Ammo. Maintain situational awareness and it will reduce the lag time in the event you are attacked.

I would rather go up against 5 bangers with Glocks than a pro with a 38.

chrisandclauida2

March 18, 2007, 01:23 PM

stephen said

Yeah... okay... What about failure to stops? What if the person you are shooting at happens to have a vest on? There is absolutely nothing wrong with 2 to the chest and one to the head. The shots to the chest may kill him EVENTUALLY, but a shot to the nervous system (brain shot) will put him down right away almost every time. We are not talking about grazing shots or shots that do not hit the brain. FBI snipers are trained to shoot for the medulla oblongata (area or the brain behind the eyes). You claim that there are no absolutes except for what you have posted. Please state your credentials and your experience to prove your "expertise".

------------------------------------------------------------

swat snipers this military snipers that. the post above stinks of immaturity and uber ninja BS, or arrogance and ignorance to the point that trying to help will be a waste of time. im sure that isnt how you meant it because as a responsible gun owner you know you always strive to learn and not get to the point of a know it all as that too can get you killed.

as you stated there is only one spot for an instant stop. it is small. not hitting that but hitting the head even the brain will not a one shot stop make. this makes my point so completely it should end the discussion. you can die even after you shoot someone in the brain. if half their brain is all over the wall behind them and you stop to assess as you did in training they can still kill you. sure they are dead also but that doesnt matter to your wife and kids does it.

I'm sure most could hit a 2 inch target thru the skull and face with a properly scoped rifle from short distance.. that is straight on no stress. maybe for a few bucks.

we are talking real life dead if you loose gunfights. .

of course if your shooting a vest then you have to make adjustments and of course if only a head is all you see then center mass is different than a body but i assumed we all were smart enough to understand this.

training for head shots is something you are training for in your regular practice. it is called marksmanship. that is why we try for small groups otherwise 1 foot groups would be fine as you torso is about that size.

regardless of the mall ninja head shot double tap crap or what ever gimmick you think will help you the fact is in a fight your training and muscle memory will take over.

if you trained enough and mentally prepared your self by mentally working thru every scenario you could think of to the point of instinctual reaction your fight or flight response wont totally take over. you will have the ability to shoot move seek cover and respond. if not your basic instincts will take over and your ability to react will be almost nill. were talking you either wet your self and run or get tunnel vision to the point you just stand there thinking i cant believe this is happening.

if you react and are able to defend your self you will do exactly as you trained. if you keep your finger on the trigger instead of keeping it out till your ready to destroy you might be shooting the ground as you draw.

if you train in double tap and assess you will fire two rounds and stop and see what happens. these are all well documented facts. this is why doing this stuff can get you killed. it is simple. it is why officers shouldn't wear their taser on the same side as their primary weapon. under stress they draw their primary weapon unintentionally and kill someone. it is because their bodies are trained to do so over years.

if you still want to argue i wont oblige as i tried to help. stubbornness can get you killed also. we all learn continually till the second we exhale our last breath. for me i hope that will be when im old and wrinkled, not as i watch some intruder rape my wife cause i was inflexible and unwilling to learn.

as for my experience i usually dont say as no one really cares. since you asked like i am some sort or cyber wannabee i will list them one time in hopes is helps to melt away the attitude to open your mind.

i have over a decade in law enforcement and over 30 years of shooting damn near every week.

i qualify distinguished[no points loss aka perfect] 3 times a year thru my career

i started with a model 19/66 357 a 12 gage and mini 14.

we changed weapons to glock 19, m16, and still the good old 870.

as stated i qualified distinguished in both handguns and rifles with the typical law enforcement course of fire on handguns and both normal rifle courses and sniper qualifications. i am by no means a sniper but i can shot moa and better if lucky.

i also trained in riot control with 37mm single shot and multi launchers firing gas rounds[muzzle blast and various grenades] stinger and knee knockers also deploying the various grenades you see used on the news.

i have attended various training both job required and personal.

i have shot many with less lethal ammo but thank god the 3 times i started the trigger back on someone to take their life circumstances changed and i didn't have to kill anyone.

Doug.38PR

March 20, 2007, 06:36 PM

interesting discussion. Ya know, a retired sheriff deputy who runs a range in the county where I work told me that he had experienced being shot with a .38 special to the chest. Told me that for all these people that say "this or that round isn't enough that it would only make the bad guy mad" he asks, "have you ever been shot?" "No" he replies, "I have. Getting mad wasn't on the top if my list of things to do...it was getting help."
Think I'll ask him what he thinks of one shot stops in general.

Smokin Joe

March 20, 2007, 10:57 PM

well, he was a sherrif, a calm thinking man.. now figure if you saw someone murder your wife and kids, and is walking out your front door...

you run after him with your baseball bat, and he shoots you in the chest with a .38.

what.. are you gonna stop ? Oh heck no right ? you gonna bash that bad guy to bits !

David Armstrong

March 21, 2007, 12:37 PM

Please do not quote me out of context.
Let's see. I responded directly to a statment of:
"I would still call that poor shot placement since nothing vital (heart, lung, brain, spinal chord) were hit."
by pointing out a particular story where an individual was hit in one of those vital areas (the heart) with what is commonly considered one of the better prforming handgun calibers without being immeidately disabled. Hard to see what your complaint is.
If someone caught a load of 00 buck square in the chest (lets assume 12 gauge), I don't see how it is possible for them to continue the fight.
And yet it happens. That is my point.
The multiple rounds of 00 buck (assuming they penetrate sufficiently) will cause massive hemmoraging and a major drop in blood pressure, causing the person to pass out and ultimately die from blood loss.
There are numerous exceptions to this that tend to show otherwise. I've seen too many folks over the years who got good CoM hits with assorted weapons to buy into the myth.

David Armstrong

March 21, 2007, 12:41 PM

even if he is laying on the ground all wounded and bleeding, if that gun is still in his hand, he CAN shoot you. this is where you shoot him with another mag full.
Sigh. Go to jail. Go directly to jail. Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200. Go directly to jail.

....now figure if you saw someone murder your wife and kids, and is walking out your front door...
you run after him with your baseball bat,....
Amazing. The BG murders your family, yet will leaves you in a position to chase him. Then, rather than determining if your family needs medical assistance, you run after the armed BG with a baseball bat. Simply amazing how some folks think.

Smokin Joe

March 21, 2007, 02:26 PM

Sigh. Go to jail. Go directly to jail. Do not pass Go. Do not collect $200. Go directly to jail.

and again, better 12 than 6...

The BG murders your family, yet will leaves you in a position to chase him. Then, rather than determining if your family needs medical assistance, you run after the armed BG with a baseball bat. Simply amazing how some folks think.

Err.. fine, then the BG murdered your family LAST WEEK, and you see him today walking down the street... point is, when you are angry enough, you wont let a shot in the chest get in your way...

David Armstrong

March 21, 2007, 02:39 PM

and again, better 12 than 6...
And why have to make the choice? Or here is a neat idea---how about neither??
then the BG murdered your family LAST WEEK, and you see him today walking down the street
I'm still not picking up a baseball bat and attacking him.
when you are angry enough, you wont let a shot in the chest get in your way...
And if the shot is good enough, you won't have any choice in the matter.

Smokin Joe

March 21, 2007, 05:07 PM

Quote:
and again, better 12 than 6...

And why have to make the choice? Or here is a neat idea---how about neither??

If you try to have neither, that makes it 6.

Quote:
then the BG murdered your family LAST WEEK, and you see him today walking down the street

I'm still not picking up a baseball bat and attacking him.

Well, thats up to you, If someone murders MY family, I would be so full of rage, I can kill him with q-tip.

Quote:
when you are angry enough, you wont let a shot in the chest get in your way...

And if the shot is good enough, you won't have any choice in the matter.

everyone already knows that. a shot will either incapacitate you or it wont. most report not feeling any pain upon being shot. some dont even know it. but a man full of rage, wont let one shot in his chest get in the way of what he intends to do.... which is why when you shoot, you gotta pumpem fulla lead. not one shot or two.

David Armstrong

March 21, 2007, 07:44 PM

........I would be so full of rage, I can kill him with q-tip.
------
....but a man full of rage, wont let one shot in his chest get in the way of what he intends to do.

Sigh. Sometimes it is really hard to carry on a reasonable discussion. Oh well.

chrisandclauida2

March 22, 2007, 04:14 AM

sometimes i think the parents let their pre teens on this sight just to harass us.

good spirited discussion is no problem. people fighting for their beliefs is the way to go but to just argue for arguments sake well that is the definition of that little hairy dude who stands under a bridge....what is he called again...

markj

March 22, 2007, 03:51 PM

I can kill him with q-tip

?? jab it into his ear? up his nose? that is one funny statement pard. :)

everyone already knows that. a shot will either incapacitate you or it wont. most report not feeling any pain upon being shot. some dont even know it. but a man full of rage, wont let one shot in his chest get in the way of what he intends to do....

Never been shot I presume? it hurts period. Some have high thresholds for pain, some do not. Dont go out and try to find yours tho, it wont work.

We have a little thing called "the law" abide by it or you will be locked up, plain and simple. Attacking a fellow with a baseball bat is a "vigilante" type of offense and it is against the law no matter how many folks he killed. You just cant go around doing this stuff, go down and find a local policeman and ask him for yourself.

kgpcr

March 22, 2007, 05:18 PM

I have seen deer keep running after being shot 7-8 times but never seen one run far after being shot through the lungs. The malarky you hear about 5 from a .45 with hollow points to the chest are bull ship as far as i am concerned. Got to see it to belive it.

Tanzer

March 22, 2007, 06:54 PM

I can drop a bag of marbles (inanimate objects), and through mathematical algorhythms predict where each one will come to rest. As soon as you put any awareness or biological aspect into the equation all bets are off. You simply cannot predict through scenario or statistics what will happen after 1,2, 3 shots or anything short of a hand grenade for that matter. Each instance is unique, and needs to be treated as such. Training is the best bet.
Regards

revjen45

March 22, 2007, 08:30 PM

There are no absolutes in real life. Life is a game of probabilities. People have fallen down and died immediately upon being shot with a .25 acp, and others have kept fighting after taking a .357 mag in the chest. I doubt that there's much argument that 8 .45's in the sternum is more likely to be a channel changer than a .25 acp gut shot. I don't go around looking for the "chance" to shoot somebody, but if it comes down to a threat on my life I will keep on shooting until the threat is eliminated or I am. I carry a 9mm with 145 gr JHP. With what's in the gun + 2 mags that's 31 rounds plus my BUG. I try to be aware enough of my surroundings to avoid the need to shoot, but nothing is 100%.

Deaf Smith

March 22, 2007, 09:34 PM

Saw a photo of a one shot stop. The guy had half his face blown off by a 12 guage (and I do mean half.) That's a hint.

If you want true one shot stops, use a 12 guage and get center hits on the head. Not pretty, but it WILL stop them, right there.

Otherwise this stat game is just a game. Funny thing is, most cops and civilan schools teach to shoot at least twice, and some say to shoot till the don't move (just how you are gonna tell that while pumping lead in them as fast as you can has never been explained to me.)

So I kind of wonder how they know if a certian round gets more one shot stops than others. I guess just include those cases where only one shot hit solid. But that takes out lots of data, and you need a pretty good database of solid GOOD data (not GIGO) to get something meaningfull with a good level of confidence.

Groundhog

March 23, 2007, 10:43 AM

Maybe a better question here would be:

Is there anyone here that wouldn't keep shooting until the threat stopped being a threat?

bdcochran

March 23, 2007, 07:01 PM

I would change only one thing that Chris said.

You train: 1. to index and cut in half the target area. This means that you can shoot an exposed elbow, a leg, a hand, an eye. You don't need mass of a target. A Cambodian SF Col. complained that his people wouldn't shoot for small targets. He was shown how to do the foregoing and brought his team over to the US for training a couple of years ago.
2. If you have a choice, you shoot for the base of the throat. You can hit high, low, left or right and have a kill shot. To mimic Chris. I am tired of the posting that an m1 carbine is garbage because people don't go down in the Chosen Resovoir in 1952. Heck people. If you insist of shooting center mass because you cannot shoot any smaller target, then you are going to shoot through layers and layers of clothes, maybe a vest, ammo, a pack or a rifle. Wake up! Shoot exposed skin or some place where a round will incapacitate of kill. A $2 handgun round that is hollow point with teeth and sprinkled with silver is turned into an fmj round by going through layers of clothing.

chrisandclauida2

March 23, 2007, 11:45 PM

deaf smith said;

If you want true one shot stops, use a 12 gauge and get center hits on the head. Not pretty, but it WILL stop them, right there.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

you can take the chance that it will be a one shot stop every time. its like the disclaimer financial planners give . past performance is not indicative or future results.

in other words what happened in the past is just that. the past.

your shot ,where ever it may hit, may be a death shot but the death may take a few seconds to minutes. in that time they can kill you.

forget about one shot stops.

Deaf Smith

March 25, 2007, 07:20 PM

Chrisan,

If you saw the photo, you would agree the guy never ever had a chance to fire anything. 12 guage at close range is real impressive (and alot easier to do than with a handgun.)

My wife used to work in ER Truama I level (besides having been a CV/ICU, CV/OR, and director of CV-nursing.) She said many times people walked in with bullet injuries. .22's and other mouse guns they walked in alot, still taking. As the power of the round went up, more and more were carried in. The ONLY ones that were just about always carried in were shotgun wounds (unless it was a leg shot or they were just peppered by bird shot, usually while hunting.)

She said chest wounds with shotguns didn't look so bad when they cleaned it up, but when they opened the chest there was so much interal bleeding as several organs were hit, that it was very hard to save them.

And head shots with 12 guages very rearly made it past the door. Usually they were DOA, or DRT where the shooting happened (though I do know of one case where in Dallas a women survived her ex-boyfriends shotgun attack in the face. But it did take off half her face.)

And yes, if I have a good head shot with a 12 guage, I'd take the chance it was over with one shot, at least on that guy. Never heard of a bullet proof face vest yet.

easyG

March 27, 2007, 10:47 AM

Well, here's what I know for sure....

I'm an X-ray technologist and I work in a rather large and busy emergency department.
I have imaged plenty of folks who have been shot.
Some of them were alive and talking and some were dead (films taken in the morgue).
Shot placement appears to be the only real determining factor when it comes to "one shot stops".
And, from what I've seen, head shots are the most effective.
It is very rare for a person to die from a single handgun round to the torso.
But it usually only takes a single round to the head to kill someone.

I think that the military and law enforcement teach COM shooting mainly for two reasons:
1) Since the target is larger, it increases the chances of a hit.
2) Cops and Soldiers don't typically get much real trigger time on the range (I know I did not get enough when I was a Soldier).

Additionally, COM shooting also helps cops in the courtroom...they can maintain that their intention is to STOP the threat and not necessarily attempt to KILL the threat.
If cops had an official policy of head shots, it would give them a negative image in the eyes of the civilian populance.

But this does not mean that COM shooting is the best method for everyone.

When I shoot at the range (about four days a month) I practice alot of one-hand-shooting and headshots at close range.

Para Bellum

April 7, 2007, 07:02 AM

There you go:
http://www.handloads.com/misc/stoppingpower.asp?Caliber=0

Don't rely on one-shot stops.

Double Naught Spy

April 7, 2007, 07:39 AM

Lurper said, The problem with statistics is that one typically throws out the outlyers

Not all do, but the data does end up averaged when ratios are used, such as 97%...

Actually, the big problem with statistics and shooting topics like one-shot-stops is that statistics are comprised of historic data (anything that has already happened) of multiple events and are not a predictive tool for what will happen in a given future event that also happens to occur in a mutually exclusive event universe from all of the historic events.

Of course, the other problem with historic statistics on shooting is that there are no controls in regard to one-shot-stops and very little criteria for determining inclusion and exclusion for event use. For example, there are no controls on shooter circumstance such as the skill of the shooter in being able to place shots. There is no control on shootee circumstance, where shots impact, what is damaged by impacts, or the shootee's physical, mental, and chemical-related attributes. In these regards, every shooting tends to be a fairly unique event that results in different outcomes.

Also, while there are instances of one shot stops that are well documented, time is rarely a factor. A person may be stopped by one shot, but how fast? Does that person have time to fire back or otherwise do harm?

Often not controlled for is whether the one-shot-stop is actually physiological or psychological. Many one-shot-stops are stops simply because the shootee decides to break off an engagement after being shot, not because s/he has been physically incapacitated by the shot.

And lastly, when it comes to one-shot-stops, there are instances where there is one shot and impact made, or multiple shots made and only one impact. Do you count the multiple shots and one impact as one shot stop or is it excluded? What about instances when there is one shot made, no impact, and the threat stops? Do those count? They are one shot stops.